Elke twee jaar brengt het WWF een update uit van de Living Planet Index (LPI), het rapportcijfer voor de natuur op aarde. Dit rapportcijfer is in 2020 weer een stuk gedaald ten opzichte van 2018, maakte het WWF deze week bekend. Spoiler: dit zegt niets over hoeveel diersoorten zijn uitgestorven, en vrijwel niets over hoeveel wilde dieren er nog op aarde zijn.
De Living Planet Index (LPI) is een soort Dow Jones index van de natuur: één cijfer dat pretendeert aan te geven hoe het momenteel met de natuur op aarde gesteld is. De LPI gaat uit van de situatie in 1970, die per definitie de score 100 heeft. Elke twee jaar inventariseert het World Wild Life Fund (WWF, met als Nederlandse tak het Wereldnatuurfonds) zoveel mogelijk betrouwbare tellingen van populaties wilde dieren. Insecten en ander klein grut wordt niet meegenomen in de LPI; het gaat om zoogdieren, vogels, vissen, reptielen en amfibieën.
Hoewel er veel geteld wordt door biologen en ecologen over de hele wereld, worden bij lange na niet alle tienduizenden diersoorten, laat staan de miljoenen afzonderlijke populaties wilde dieren, periodiek geteld. Ook is de kleine minderheid van soorten en populaties waarvoor betrouwbare tellingen over een lange tijdsperiode bestaan, op geen enkele manier een representatieve steekproef van alle diersoorten. Niettemin wordt elke telling uitgedrukt in een percentage met 1970 als referentie, en via een meertrapsproces van wegen en middelen in het eindcijfer opgenomen.
Tweederde minder?
De LPI is sinds 1970 gestadig gedaald, en was in 2018 met 60 procent afgenomen. De update voor 2020 geeft een daling aan van 68 procent, dus een verdere daling met 8 procentpunten. In dit tempo zal de LPI rond 2050 onder de 1 procent zakken.
Het is nog even afwachten hoe de LPI 2020 in de nieuwsmedia gaat resoneren, maar de verwarring die de LPI 2018 veroorzaakte was bijna komisch: de één maakte er van dat 60 procent van de diersoorten sinds 1970 is uitgestorven, de ander dat 60 procent van de dierenpopulaties is verdwenen, en weer een ander dat 60 procent van alle wilde dieren is verdwenen. ‘Hoe bedoel je, dat is niet hetzelfde? Nou ja, zoiets, het is in ieder geval heel erg’, zullen ze op die redacties wel gedacht hebben.
Toegegeven, het is ook verwarrend. Daarom staat in het LPI 2020 rapport op pagina 17 expliciet vermeld:
What the LPI does not tell us
– The LPI doesn’t show numbers of species lost or extinctions.
– It does not mean that X% of species or populations are declining.
– Or that X% of populations or individuals have been lost.
Vertaling (met 68% ingevuld voor X):
Wat de LPI ons niet vertelt
– De LPI laat geen aantallen verdwenen soorten of uitstervingen zien
– Het betekent niet dat 68% van de soorten of populaties in aantal afneemt
– Of dat 68% van de populaties of individuen verdwenen is
Op de eigen website omschrijft het Wereldnatuurfonds dit zo:
‘Dit jaar laat het rapport zien dat wereldwijd de omvang van populaties zoogdieren, vissen, vogels, reptielen en amfibieën gemiddeld is afgenomen met 68% sinds 1970.’
Maar als populaties gemiddeld met 68 procent zijn afgenomen, hoe kan het dan, dat niet ook ongeveer 68 procent van de dieren is verdwenen?
Om dat echt te snappen moet je niet bij het lijvige rapport zelf zijn, maar bij het technical supplement. Terwijl het technical supplement bij de LPI 2018 subtiel in de luwte werd gehouden, is het technical supplement bij de LPI 2020 online gewoon onvindbaar, hoewel het rapport zelf er herhaaldelijk naar verwijst. Ik ga er daarom maar van uit, dat het systeem om de LPI te berekenen sinds 2018 niet wezenlijk veranderd is.
Het ene gemiddelde is het andere niet
Als je dat helemaal uitpluist, blijkt de schijnbaar onschuldige term ‘gemiddeld’ beladen met een rekensystematiek die vol arbitraire keuzes zit. Zo maakt het voor zijn invloed op de LPI niets uit hoe groot een populatie is. Fictief voorbeeld: de afname met 50 procent van een piepkleine populatie visjes in, zeg, één bergmeertje in de Andes, weegt in deze systematiek even zwaar als een toename met 30 procent van de Noord-Atlantische zalm. Dat komt neer op maar een paar Andes-visjes minder en miljoenen zalmen erbij, maar de LPI voor deze twee populaties gezamenlijk is dan -35 procent.
De rekenmethode is zelfs zodanig (het geometrisch gemiddelde nemen, voor de fijnproevers) dat de LPI over willekeurig veel populaties dieren die allemaal een gezonde groei vertonen, door één populatie die percentueel sterk afneemt, omlaag kan worden getrokken tot een afname.
Daar bovenop komt dan nog een systeem van weegfactoren per groep dieren die de uiteindelijke LPI nog ondoorzichtiger maakt. En tenslotte zit er waarschijnlijk een forse selectie bias in welke soorten vooral door biologen geteld worden, namelijk de zeldzame, bedreigde soorten.
Misschien zijn er wel méér dieren
Ondanks de alsmaar dalende LPI, is het best mogelijk dat er nu meer wilde dieren op aarde zijn dan in 1970. Immers, de aarde is al sinds 1970 aan het vergroenen, in de zin dat de natuur jaarlijks netto miljarden tonnen koolstof in de vorm van CO2 uit de lucht opneemt. Dat wordt allemaal omgezet in biomassa, dus bomen, struiken, vruchten, zeewier en dergelijke. Al dat extra groen is in principe voer voor planteneters, die weer voer voor vleeseters zijn. En als er ergens extra aanbod van voedsel is, grijpt de natuur altijd haar kans.
Dat die kansen er wel degelijk nog zijn, blijkt ook uit een ander gegeven in het LPI-rapport: van alle getelde soorten is de helft ofwel in aantal toegenomen, of ongeveer even groot gebleven. Er is dus geen sprake van dat de natuur planeetbreed aan het afsterven is. Er zijn ecosystemen waarmee het heel slecht gaat, ecosystemen waarmee het heel goed gaat, en allerlei ecosystemen daar tussenin. Dat maakt het weergeven van de staat van de mondiale natuur in een soort Dow Jones-index tot een onzinnige exercitie, hoe creatief de boekhouder ook is die je daar op los laat.
Het Living Planet Report 2020 (Nederlandse samenvatting, en volledig rapport in het Engels). https://www.wwf.nl/wat-we-doen/focus/biodiversiteit/living-planet-report/2020
Mijn gedetailleerde ontleding van de Living Planet Index en andere indicatoren voor de gezondheid van de natuur, oorspronkelijk gepubliceerd in tijdschrift Skepter. http://www.exponentry.eu/focusatscience/articles/Biodiversiteit.pdf
Gepubliceerd op Wynia’s Week
Geschreven door: Arnout Jaspers
Gepubliceerd op: 12 september 2020
111 thoughts on “Opinie: De natuur is niét planeetbreed aan het afsterven”
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